Go-Live checklist

Go-Live Checklist

2026-04-22 architecture update: This checklist covers all components of Phase A (spot alts trend) + Phase B (futures L+S) + Smart DCA dual-channel. Each component goes live independently and can be rolled out in batches at your own pace.

Architecture Quick Reference

Component	Config	Market	Key Requirement	Live flag
HonestTrend15mDry	`config_dryrun_honest15m.json`	Binance spot	spot trading only	—
HonestTrend1mMTF	`config_dryrun_honest1mmtf.json`	Binance spot	spot trading only	—
HonestTrendFutures	`config_dryrun_honestfutures15m.json`	Binance USDT-M futures	futures trading only	—
Weekly DCA	`crypto-dca.timer` → `dca_executor.py`	Binance spot	spot buy only	`DCA_LIVE_ENABLED=true`
Event DCA	`crypto-event-dca.service` → `event_dca_bot.py`	Binance spot	spot buy only	`DCA_LIVE_ENABLED=true`

Phase 1: Dry-Run Validation (each component independent, minimum 2-4 weeks)

All components must first pass the following thresholds in dry-run:

HonestTrend15mDry / HonestTrend1mMTF (spot long-only)

Cumulative ≥ 20 trades (statistical significance)
Rolling PF ≥ 1.2
Max DD < 12% (A5 backtest 14.77%, dry-run should be similar or better)
0 RETIRED events
Walk-forward monthly check at least 4/8 windows positive

HonestTrendFutures (futures long+short)

Cumulative ≥ 30 trades (L+S has higher frequency)
Long / Short ratio between 30-50% (proves short signals actually fired)
Funding rate actual cost ≤ 6% annualized (backtest ~4%, leave margin)
Max DD < 10% (backtest 7.84%)
Stoploss -8% trigger frequency ≤ 5%/month
Walk-forward 5/6 windows positive (validated W5 LUNA-type scenario)

Smart DCA (both channels)

At least 1 Monday trigger (next Monday journalctl --user -u crypto-dca.service)
Telegram push works, FnG/cycle multipliers look reasonable
Event channel fires at least 1-2 times (or skip this item if the market is quiet for 1 month)
Supabase dca_log table has records

Phase 2: Prepare Live Keys

Binance API key setup: https://www.binance.com/en/my/settings/api-management

Permissions: only enable Spot Trading
Permissions: disable Withdrawals / Margin / Lending
IP allowlist: server public IP

Add to SOPS:

sops edit secrets.env
# Add:
# BINANCE_API_KEY=<key>
# BINANCE_API_SECRET=<secret>

2.2 Futures strategy (separate API key)

You must create a separate API key — do not reuse the spot one (security isolation + Binance permission separation):

Create a new Binance API key, only enable Futures Trading
Disable Spot / Withdrawals / Margin
IP allowlist same as above

Add to SOPS:

sops edit secrets.env
# Add:
# BINANCE_FUTURES_API_KEY=<key>
# BINANCE_FUTURES_API_SECRET=<secret>

Copy config_dryrun_honestfutures15m.json to config_live_honestfutures15m.json, dry_run: false
Update start_honest_trend.sh’s start_futures function to inject futures keys

2.3 DCA live flag

Add DCA_LIVE_ENABLED=true to SOPS secrets.env (both DCA channels share this flag)

Phase 3: Capital Allocation

Total capital: 100,000 USDT

Allocation (Phase A/B architecture):
  Spot wallet (ETH/BNB/SOL trend + DCA accumulate BTC):  60,000 USDT
    ├─ Trend bots shared: 10,000 USDT (3 bots × 3,500 USDT avg)
    ├─ DCA accumulation (weekly + event):  50,000 USDT (accumulating)
    │
  Futures wallet (isolated, small-sized trial):  5,000 USDT
    └─ HonestTrendFutures L+S

  Stablecoin yield:                              25,000 USDT
  Reserve (do not touch):                        10,000 USDT

Principles:

Futures starts at 5,000 USDT (backtest DD 7.84% → worst-case loss ~$400); add only after proving stable for 2 months
Trend starts at 10,000 USDT (original allocated amount)
DCA weekly DCA $500 base × 3.0 max = $1500/week max → ~$26K/year budget (leaves the 50K pool to accumulate slowly over 1.9 years)

Phase 4: Go-Live Order (roll out in batches; do not turn on all at once)

Batch 1 (Week 1-2): Spot trend bots

# 1. Start 15m spot live
./scripts/start_honest_trend.sh live    # old 1m live path, or write a new 15m live launcher

Observe for 2 weeks, check Telegram daily
Confirm live vs dry-run P&L differs < 1% / week

Batch 2 (Week 3): Weekly DCA go-live

sops edit secrets.env
# Add DCA_LIVE_ENABLED=true
# Restart crypto-dca.timer (auto-fires next Monday)

On first trigger, manually monitor once; verify Binance actual fills vs Telegram preview

Batch 3 (Week 5): Event DCA go-live

# DCA_LIVE_ENABLED already set, just restart event daemon
systemctl --user restart crypto-event-dca.service

Wait for an actual crash trigger (may take several weeks)
After first trigger, check: were cooldown / monthly budget really deducted?

Batch 4 (Week 7 or later): Futures L+S go-live

This is the most dangerous step. The following must be met first:

All of batches 1-3 stable ≥ 2 weeks
Futures API key tested (read-only)
You know the liquidation price (1x leverage will not liquidate, but stoploss -8% will eat it)
Transferred 5,000 USDT into the Binance futures wallet

# Start (assuming config_live_honestfutures15m.json is prepared)
./scripts/start_honest_trend.sh futures-live    # need to add this mode first

Phase 5: Continuous Monitoring (Forever)

Daily (Telegram is enough)

Heartbeat present for all 3 bots
No RETIRED alerts
Funding rate notifications (if any)
Event DCA trigger notifications (if any)

Weekly

Check DD and PF with risk_monitor.py status
Compare this week’s dry-run vs live actual fills (slippage / latency)
Check event_dca_state.json monthly budget usage for Event DCA

Monthly

Walk-forward monthly validation (runs automatically via crypto-walkforward.timer)
Futures funding cumulative cost (actual vs backtest expected 4%)
Equity curve vs market comparison (Phase B should outperform in bear markets)

Emergency Procedures

Global Emergency Stop

./emergency_stop.sh

Kills all freqtrade trade processes + stops timers + Telegram alert. Note: event_dca daemon must be stopped separately:

systemctl --user stop crypto-event-dca.service

Stop a Specific Bot Only

# Stop only futures (keep spot)
pkill -TERM -f "config_dryrun_honestfutures15m"

# Stop only event DCA (keep weekly DCA)
systemctl --user stop crypto-event-dca.service

Block New Entries, Keep Existing

# Via API (each bot independent)
curl -X POST http://127.0.0.1:8082/api/v1/stopentry  # spot 15m
curl -X POST http://127.0.0.1:8084/api/v1/stopentry  # futures

# Or Telegram /stopentry (will be sent to all bots with the token)

Force-Close All Futures Positions

# Telegram to HonestTrendFutures:
# /forceexit all
# Or go directly to the Binance futures UI and market-close everything

Risk Rules (Hard Rules, No Bypass)

Rule	Limit	Enforced By
Max open trades per bot	3	config `max_open_trades`
Max per-position	1,500 USDT × pyramid 2.6 = 3,900 USDT	config `stake_amount` + pyramid
Account max DD	15% → PAUSE, 20% → RETIRE	`risk_manager.py`
Futures leverage	1x (never exceed 2x)	`HonestTrendFutures.leverage() → 1.0`
Futures stoploss	−8% (hard stop)	`HonestTrendFutures.stoploss = -0.08`
Short FnG filter	FnG > 70 blocks shorts	`HonestTrendFutures.FNG_SHORT_BLOCK`
DCA monthly budget	Weekly $500 × 3x max / Event $2000/month	env vars + executor clamp
DCA cooldown	Event 72h, max 3 times per month	`event_dca_state.json`
Spot stoploss	None (`-0.99`), signal-driven exits	IStrategy `stoploss = -0.99`

What NOT to Do

❌ Do not go live with all 4 components on the same day — batch it, observe each batch ≥ 2 weeks
❌ Do not give the futures API key spot permissions — isolation is the first line of defense
❌ Do not skip the DCA_LIVE_ENABLED lock — it was added to the code specifically to prevent accidental triggers
❌ Do not manually edit strategy parameters while live — if you want to tune, go back to dry-run first
❌ Do not raise futures leverage to 2x+ — backtest DD 7.84%, 2x means 15.7%, leaving only 4 ppt margin to the 20% kill-switch
❌ Do not override the FnG short filter — shorting FOMO tops like 2021 Q4 will get you flattened
❌ Do not manually close positions and restart the bot — the bot will re-enter, you just waste fees
❌ Do not run multiple live spot bots on the same Binance account (futures is OK because positions are isolated)

Next Steps After Transition

Phase B+1: Futures 2x leverage (requires re-running walk-forward to verify W5 LUNA does not blow up)
Phase B+2: Funding rate filter (avoid shorting when funding is high)
Deribit Phase 2: Upgrade from monitoring to auto-writing CSP options
V5: Event DCA for ETH / SOL (currently BTC-only)

All of the above wait until the current 4 components have been live-stable for 3+ months.