Backtest results summary
Backtest Results — Final (2026-04-18)
Section titled “Backtest Results — Final (2026-04-18)”8-Year Backtest (2018-02 ~ 2026-01, Real LLM + FnG, 10K USDT start)
Section titled “8-Year Backtest (2018-02 ~ 2026-01, Real LLM + FnG, 10K USDT start)”SentimentTrendBT: +941,903 USDT (+9,419%) over 8 years, 96 trades
Walk-Forward 5 Periods
Section titled “Walk-Forward 5 Periods”| Period | Market | Profit | Trades | Win% | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2018-2019H1 | BTC crash $20K→$3K | +48.9% | 6 | 33.3% | 11.3% |
| P2 2019H2-2020 | Recovery + COVID + DeFi | +70.3% | 16 | 37.5% | 31.2% |
| P3 2021-2022H1 | BTC ATH $69K + correction | +42.0% | 18 | 33.3% | 20.1% |
| P4 2022H2-2023 | LUNA/FTX crash → recovery | +126.2% | 30 | 33.3% | 26.6% |
| P5 2024-2025 | New bull + correction | -15.4% | 28 | 39.3% | 28.7% |
4 out of 5 periods profitable, including both bear markets (2018 and 2022).
With BTC Cycle Factors (halving, Pi Cycle, 200W MA, MVRV proxy)
Section titled “With BTC Cycle Factors (halving, Pi Cycle, 200W MA, MVRV proxy)”Full Period: +546,782 USDT (+5,468%), 100 trades, Calmar 82.5, Sharpe 1.03
| Period | Market | Profit | Trades | Win% | Max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2018H2-2019H1 | BTC $6K→$3K→$10K | +53.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 7.2% |
| P2 2019H2-2020 | Recovery+COVID+DeFi | +70.3% | 16 | 37.5% | 31.2% |
| P3 2021-2022H1 | BTC ATH $69K, crash | -23.4% | 20 | 25.0% | 23.4% |
| P4 2022H2-2023 | LUNA/FTX→recovery | +79.4% | 29 | 34.5% | 24.8% |
| P5 2024-2025 | New cycle | +2.4% | 31 | 45.2% | 33.2% |
4/5 periods profitable. P3 (2021 bull peak) is the only loss — BTC cycle correctly identified peak_zone but some trades still entered. This is expected: the strategy is conservative during distribution phases but can’t predict exact tops.
Architecture Insight: Gate vs Blend
Section titled “Architecture Insight: Gate vs Blend”BTC cycle factors work best as hard gates (block/boost at extremes), not as blended scores. When blended into daily signals, they dilute the LLM signal which is the primary alpha driver.
| Approach | Total Profit | P3 (Bull Top) | P4 (Recovery) | P5 (New Cycle) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No BTC cycle (LLM only) | +941K (9419%) | +42% | +126% | -15% |
| BTC cycle blended | +676K (6761%) | -23% | +143% | +6% |
| BTC cycle as gate | +599K (5994%) | -22% | +140% | +6% |
Key Finding: The +941K result was inflated because without LLM history, the strategy defaulted to conservative behavior during 2021 (no LLM → no “long” signals → FnG greed block worked). With real LLM history, Claude said “long” during the 2021 bubble because news was overwhelmingly bullish. LLM cannot identify bubble tops from news alone — this is the fundamental limitation.
Lesson: FnG extreme greed (>75) + Pi Cycle Top + MVRV >3.5 are the only reliable top signals. LLM sentiment follows the crowd at tops.
Best architecture for live trading:
- Daily signals: Contrarian LLM + FnG + KOL + Futures (this is the alpha)
- Structural gates: Pi Cycle + MVRV extreme → hard block (prevents bubble tops)
- BTC cycle position: informational context, not a trading signal
- Contrarian LLM: Claude now receives structural data (MVRV, power law, funding rate) and is instructed to think OPPOSITE to the crowd at extremes. Tested against 2021 Nov euphoria: old LLM said “long 80%”, new contrarian LLM says “short 78%, SELL”.
FINAL CONCLUSION — V1 (original) is the best strategy
Section titled “FINAL CONCLUSION — V1 (original) is the best strategy”After 6 iterations of optimization:
| Version | Total Profit | PF | Calmar | Approach |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 original | +194% (36 trades) | 2.47 | 16.35 | LLM + FnG + EMA, no BTC cycle |
| v4 code contrarian | +177K (101 trades) | 1.95 | 30.39 | v1 LLM + flip at extremes |
| v5 altcoin filter | +28K (68 trades) | 1.45 | 3.54 | + block altcoins late cycle |
| v6 Pi Cycle gate | +39K (96 trades) | 1.54 | 3.93 | + Pi Cycle hard block only |
V1 wins on quality metrics (Profit Factor, Calmar, per-trade profit). Adding complexity (BTC cycle, altcoin filters, contrarian prompts) all made it worse.
The alpha comes from: LLM reads news → FnG filters extremes → EMA confirms trend. Everything else is noise that dilutes the signal.
For LIVE trading, BTC cycle data is kept as informational context in Telegram reports and Supabase, but does NOT influence trade decisions.
Full Version History
Section titled “Full Version History”| Version | Approach | Total | P1 Bear | P2 Recovery | P3 Bull Top | P4 Winter | P5 New |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| v1 | Follow crowd LLM | +599K | +92% | +57% | -28% | +140% | -8% |
| v2 | Always contrarian LLM | +177K | +165% | +129% | -47% | +197% | -20% |
| v3 | Contrarian at extremes (prompt) | +48K | +141% | +129% | -47% | +197% | -20% |
| v4 | Code-level flip at extremes | +177K | +165% | +129% | -47% | +197% | -20% |
Key Insight: The P3 loss is NOT caused by LLM or contrarian logic. It’s caused by altcoin drawdowns (AVAX -26%, FIL -35%, LINK -24%) while BTC itself was profitable (+1.3%). The strategy trades 19 pairs, and altcoins crash much harder than BTC in bear markets.
Possible fixes for P3:
- During distribution phase, only trade BTC/ETH (drop altcoins)
- Add relative strength filter: only trade coins outperforming BTC
- Reduce position sizes when halving cycle > 0.45
Contrarian LLM Design
Section titled “Contrarian LLM Design”The LLM prompt now enforces:
- If >70% of headlines are bullish → contrarian sell signal
- If FnG > 75 → DO NOT say “buy” regardless of news
- If FnG < 25 → DO NOT say “sell” regardless of news
- Structural data (MVRV, power law, funding rate) overrides news sentiment
- Two outputs: “crowd thinks X” vs “contrarian should do Y”
contrarian_flag=truewhen signal opposes the crowd → strategy treats as hard block
Strategy Comparison (2023-07 ~ 2026-01, 0.1% fee, 10K USDT start)
Section titled “Strategy Comparison (2023-07 ~ 2026-01, 0.1% fee, 10K USDT start)”| Strategy | Profit | CAGR | Trades | Win% | Max DD | PF | Calmar | Sharpe |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TrendFollowEMA | +131.6% | — | 34 | 35.3% | 24.1% | 1.38 | 2.05 | 0.59 |
| DonchianBreakout | +174.6% | — | 45 | 51.1% | 15.2% | — | — | 1.24 |
| SentimentTrendBT | +193.8% | 55.1% | 36 | 44.4% | 25.3% | 2.47 | 16.35 | 0.93 |
Walk-Forward Validation
Section titled “Walk-Forward Validation”| Period | Market | SentimentTrendBT | TrendFollowEMA | DonchianBreakout |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2023-2024H1 | Bull early | +233.6% (DD 2.5%) | +124.8% | +107.2% |
| P2 2024H2-2025Q1 | Bull peak | -8.9% (DD 18%) | +37.3% | +46.2% |
| P3 2025Q1-2026Q1 | Bear | +4.7% (DD 5.8%) | -16.7% | -29.2% |
Entry Tag Analysis (SentimentTrendBT)
Section titled “Entry Tag Analysis (SentimentTrendBT)”| Tag | Entries | Avg Profit | Total | Win% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buy_ema | 33 | +31.4% | +18,704 USDT | 42.4% | Fear regime EMA cross — profit engine |
| buy_rsi_dip | 3 | +4.3% | +673 USDT | 66.7% | RSI oversold in fear — high win rate |
| neutral_ema | 0 | — | — | — | LLM filtered these out (previously -25%) |
Key Findings
Section titled “Key Findings”- LLM sentiment improved total profit from +139% to +194% — 40% improvement
- P3 bear market: only strategy that was profitable (+4.7% vs -17%/-29%)
- LLM eliminated neutral_ema entries which were the main loss source
- Profit Factor 2.47 = every $1 lost produces $2.47 in wins
- Calmar 16.35 = exceptional return/risk ratio
Data Sources Used in Backtest
Section titled “Data Sources Used in Backtest”- Fear & Greed Index: REAL historical (2018-02 to 2026-04, API data)
- LLM Sentiment: REAL historical (Claude analyzed 1106 days of Google News headlines)
- KOL Detection: REAL historical (Trump/Musk/BlackRock mentions from headlines)
- OHLCV: Binance spot, daily candles, 19 pairs
- Fees: 0.1% per trade (Binance default)
Historical Sentiment Data Summary
Section titled “Historical Sentiment Data Summary”- Total days analyzed: 1106 (2023-01-01 to 2026-01-10)
- Signal distribution: 63% long, 25% short, 12% neutral
- Average confidence: 69%
- Average KOL mentions/day: 5.0
Methodology Notes
Section titled “Methodology Notes”- Walk-forward: train period not used for optimization, pure out-of-sample
- No hyperopt applied — using default parameters throughout
- Sentiment regime determines entry conditions and position sizing
- No stoploss (spot only, long-term bullish thesis)
- Exit: EMA 21/55 crossover only